データ期間
2007-09-12
2026-06-15
2026-06-15
Theme Recovery Watch
テーマ数
27
入力行数
114,272
接続状態
not_connected
検証中です。これは売買シグナルではなく、ランキング未接続です。過去統計に基づく参考情報として表示しています。
News/GDELT/theme_score変化は履歴不足のため今回は使用していません。価格系データだけの検証です。
Bias Warnings
- 価格系データのみを使用
- News/GDELT/theme_score変化は履歴不足のため未使用
- 現在のTheme Catalogを過去に適用
- 生存バイアスあり
- proxy履歴品質がテーマごとに異なる
- ランキング未接続
現在のRecovery Pattern別テーマ一覧
| Pattern | Theme | Proxy | Quality | 20d | 60d | SPY相対60d | 52週高値距離 | 200日MA距離 | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depressed | LNG | basket | good | -5.8% | -21.0% | -35.4% | -24.4% | -5.8% | SPY相対がマイナス、200日MA下、52週高値から遠い。 |
| Base Building | Biotechnology | etf | good | +3.8% | +8.4% | -6.0% | -2.0% | +9.4% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Defense | etf | good | +8.8% | +5.0% | -9.4% | -3.7% | +9.5% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Infrastructure | etf | good | +4.0% | +13.7% | -0.7% | -0.6% | +12.6% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Materials | etf | good | +4.4% | +10.0% | -4.4% | -2.1% | +9.4% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Nuclear | etf | good | -3.6% | -4.7% | -19.1% | -29.2% | -6.9% | まだ弱いが、短期リターンまたは相対・200日MAの悪化が止まり始めている。 |
| Base Building | Real Estate | etf | good | +4.1% | +7.1% | -7.4% | -0.8% | +6.5% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Regional Banks | etf | good | +7.5% | +14.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% | +8.5% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Base Building | Transportation | etf | good | +11.6% | +23.4% | +9.0% | -0.1% | +18.0% | 明確な回復確認前の監視状態。 |
| Early Recovery | Medical Devices | etf | good | +3.6% | -5.4% | -19.8% | -19.2% | -10.1% | 20日リターン、SPY相対60日、200日MA距離が同時に改善。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Cloud Computing | etf | good | +5.5% | +12.2% | -2.2% | -13.4% | +1.3% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Copper | etf | good | +5.8% | +21.5% | +7.1% | -3.7% | +19.8% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Financials | etf | good | +4.8% | +9.3% | -5.1% | -5.0% | +1.9% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Healthcare | etf | good | +5.4% | +4.3% | -10.1% | -4.6% | +2.5% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Housing | etf | good | +12.4% | +8.6% | -5.9% | -13.0% | -1.1% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Retail | etf | good | +3.5% | +6.7% | -7.7% | -2.0% | +2.5% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Software | etf | partial | +28.8% | +52.4% | +38.0% | -20.1% | +34.7% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Recovery Confirmation | Utilities | etf | good | +2.0% | -3.6% | -18.0% | -6.0% | +0.6% | SPY相対60日または200日MA近辺を回復。 |
| Trend Continuation | AI Infrastructure | basket | good | -0.7% | +27.2% | +12.8% | -8.9% | +18.7% | 60/90日、SPY相対、200日MAが揃って強い。 |
| Trend Continuation | Cyber Security | etf | good | +9.5% | +28.3% | +13.9% | -8.1% | +18.1% | 60/90日、SPY相対、200日MAが揃って強い。 |
| Trend Continuation | Data Center Power | basket | good | -6.6% | +17.5% | +3.1% | -8.6% | +29.3% | 60/90日、SPY相対、200日MAが揃って強い。 |
| Trend Continuation | Small Caps | etf | good | +6.6% | +17.8% | +3.4% | 0.0% | +14.2% | 60/90日、SPY相対、200日MAが揃って強い。 |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | Communication Services | etf | good | -2.9% | +1.5% | -12.9% | -5.5% | -0.9% | 相対加速度またはSPY相対60日の改善が鈍化。 |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | Construction | basket | good | -0.3% | +32.3% | +17.9% | -2.5% | +43.8% | 52週高値近辺で短期過熱または相対加速度が鈍化。 |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | Energy | etf | good | -6.5% | -6.4% | -20.8% | -11.2% | +9.4% | 相対加速度またはSPY相対60日の改善が鈍化。 |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | Semiconductors | etf | good | +19.6% | +73.0% | +58.6% | 0.0% | +67.2% | 52週高値近辺で短期過熱または相対加速度が鈍化。 |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | Shipping | etf | good | +0.0% | +6.7% | -7.7% | -2.3% | +18.2% | 52週高値近辺で短期過熱または相対加速度が鈍化。 |
Pattern別 180日後検証（日次）
日次行ベースの集計です。連続状態の重複を含むため、方向確認用です。
| Pattern | Horizon | Sample | Win | Avg | Median | Excess Sample | Excess Win | Avg Excess | Median Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depressed | 180d | 9,328 | +63.7% | +9.9% | +7.7% | 9,328 | +49.2% | +2.7% | -0.2% |
| Base Building | 180d | 36,268 | +67.3% | +8.2% | +7.3% | 36,268 | +47.8% | +0.6% | -0.6% |
| Early Recovery | 180d | 5,421 | +64.8% | +10.5% | +8.3% | 5,421 | +48.0% | +2.1% | -0.7% |
| Recovery Confirmation | 180d | 22,572 | +67.3% | +9.2% | +8.2% | 22,572 | +47.2% | +1.0% | -0.9% |
| Trend Continuation | 180d | 16,715 | +70.8% | +9.4% | +8.8% | 16,715 | +51.0% | +1.7% | +0.3% |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | 180d | 19,108 | +66.8% | +9.9% | +7.8% | 19,108 | +47.0% | +2.1% | -0.9% |
Cooldown後イベント検証 20営業日
| Pattern | Horizon | Sample | Win | Avg | Median | Excess Sample | Excess Win | Avg Excess | Median Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depressed | 180d | 1,024 | +65.2% | +10.4% | +7.8% | 1,024 | +48.1% | +2.4% | -0.3% |
| Base Building | 180d | 3,513 | +66.2% | +8.5% | +7.6% | 3,513 | +47.5% | +0.8% | -0.6% |
| Early Recovery | 180d | 953 | +66.5% | +10.1% | +8.9% | 953 | +47.3% | +1.7% | -0.9% |
| Recovery Confirmation | 180d | 2,425 | +66.9% | +8.7% | +7.8% | 2,425 | +47.4% | +0.9% | -0.8% |
| Trend Continuation | 180d | 1,579 | +69.6% | +9.5% | +9.2% | 1,579 | +50.8% | +1.9% | +0.3% |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | 180d | 1,982 | +67.2% | +9.6% | +7.7% | 1,982 | +47.6% | +1.9% | -0.7% |
Cooldown後イベント検証 60営業日
| Pattern | Horizon | Sample | Win | Avg | Median | Excess Sample | Excess Win | Avg Excess | Median Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depressed | 180d | 575 | +65.9% | +9.5% | +7.4% | 575 | +45.9% | +1.3% | -1.2% |
| Base Building | 180d | 1,481 | +66.2% | +8.5% | +8.0% | 1,481 | +48.5% | +1.0% | -0.4% |
| Early Recovery | 180d | 581 | +65.6% | +10.4% | +8.8% | 581 | +46.5% | +2.0% | -1.3% |
| Recovery Confirmation | 180d | 1,154 | +66.4% | +8.9% | +7.9% | 1,154 | +47.5% | +1.2% | -0.7% |
| Trend Continuation | 180d | 741 | +68.7% | +9.5% | +8.4% | 741 | +51.1% | +2.0% | +0.4% |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | 180d | 950 | +66.9% | +9.2% | +7.8% | 950 | +46.6% | +1.3% | -1.0% |
ETF proxy / Basket proxy別 20営業日Cooldown
| Pattern | Proxy | Horizon | Sample | Win | Avg | Median | Excess Sample | Excess Win | Avg Excess | Median Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depressed | basket | 180d | 180 | +63.9% | +14.7% | +9.1% | 180 | +57.8% | +9.6% | +3.9% |
| Base Building | basket | 180d | 470 | +67.2% | +15.0% | +12.6% | 470 | +57.9% | +7.0% | +3.1% |
| Early Recovery | basket | 180d | 168 | +71.4% | +17.3% | +14.4% | 168 | +61.9% | +8.9% | +4.0% |
| Recovery Confirmation | basket | 180d | 361 | +69.0% | +15.5% | +12.7% | 361 | +56.2% | +7.3% | +3.2% |
| Trend Continuation | basket | 180d | 337 | +71.5% | +17.0% | +15.1% | 337 | +62.3% | +10.0% | +6.2% |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | basket | 180d | 453 | +72.6% | +19.3% | +17.5% | 453 | +62.3% | +11.1% | +7.4% |
| Depressed | etf | 180d | 844 | +65.5% | +9.5% | +7.5% | 844 | +46.1% | +0.9% | -1.0% |
| Base Building | etf | 180d | 3,043 | +66.1% | +7.5% | +6.9% | 3,043 | +45.9% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| Early Recovery | etf | 180d | 785 | +65.5% | +8.6% | +8.0% | 785 | +44.2% | +0.1% | -1.7% |
| Recovery Confirmation | etf | 180d | 2,064 | +66.6% | +7.5% | +7.3% | 2,064 | +45.8% | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| Trend Continuation | etf | 180d | 1,242 | +69.1% | +7.4% | +7.7% | 1,242 | +47.7% | -0.2% | -0.8% |
| Overheated / Fading Risk | etf | 180d | 1,529 | +65.6% | +6.7% | +6.1% | 1,529 | +43.3% | -0.8% | -1.7% |